And: OpenAI's delayed IPO, worker discontent, and Chinese AI! The post California’s about to learn that you can’t tax a moving target appeared first on Cautious Optimism.

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Since the SpaceX IPO earlier this month, speculation about SpaceX entering the mobile market has reached fever pitch, most recently in an FT article that cites comments made by Gwynne Shotwell to…

看這本書/電影的契機/理由？ 惲雷經理提到過當中的“投資第一性原理”，想更深入瞭解更多細節。 内容概述 第一章開始就從投資第一性原理出發，闡述如何評估企業價值，給出一個“模糊的準確”估值。（任何帶有“估”的東西，都應當認識到其模糊性）。現金流折現模型，就是把企業未來創造的自由現金流，用權益資產長期回報折現到當前的價值，公式如下： P V = ∑ i = 1 n F C F i ( 1 + r )…

Apple erhöht die Preis, quer durch alle Produkte. Wer demnächst Hardware kaufen will, sollte deshalb schnell handeln, solange es noch Lagerbestände zu alten Preisen im Handel gibt. Hier eine Liste…

There’s a reason why your next iPhone is about to get a lot more expensive: the northern long-eared bat. This species of bat is federally recognized as endangered, and it nests in a stretch of forest…

Plus! Non-Currency Peg; Overspending; Balance Sheets; Sentiment; Dashboards

A lack of trained workers may be one of the biggest obstacles to adopting circular economy practices, according to a survey of more than 100 industry experts involved in sustainability initiatives…

The dot-com bubble (and subsequent crash) happened over a two-and-a-half-year period between 2000 and 2002 (the year I started the blog). I was reminded of this period while watching a video…

A guide to every variation of FIRE, how taking it abroad enhances the plan, and how to use each in sequence to achieve financial independence faster. Disclaimer: This content is for educational and…

New Politics for the Next Economy available here: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0H6P5MZ6Z/ At our country's 250th anniversary, I've described four past Americas and a fifth, new America that is ours to…

The National Institute of Industrial Property (INPI) published Public Call No. 01/2026 to select success stories related to the strategic use of intellectual property assets. The initiative aims to…

Nine days after the Commodore Callback 8020 landed with a thud, a $100 price cut appeared — fast on the heels of a CEO letter that didn't exactly land softly either. I've seen companies "listen to…

The most dangerous economic crises are not necessarily the ones that arrive with the loudest warnings. The collapse of confidence, which is often the foundation of every modern financial system,…

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Home Ownership Affordability Monitor , the national median household income was $85,828 in March 2026. This figure compares with Motio Research's…

Daytona went closed source yesterday, and the reasoning was security. Look at these moves through the lens of business instead, and a different and more honest story shows up.

Steve Corbin is emeritus professor of marketing at the University of Northern Iowa and a contributing columnist to 246 newspapers and 48 social media platforms in 45 states, who receives no…

A concept that Beckworth often mentions concerning Fed culpability/performance during the GFC is the problem of data revisions. Currently, we know what the revised data says about NGDP, inflation,…

Have you ever heard the argument that we use paper money because of how heavy metal is? You wouldn’t want to lug around all of that heavy gold would you? Well that argument is pretty silly because…

The first thing I do when I wake up every morning is to open the stock app and check my watchlist. It’s a habit I developed and reinforced over the past few years. Admittedly, it’s very…

Can we measure extreme financial risk? Is financial stability only a question of technology and data? Many seem to think so. I disagree.

Many people claim that AI inference is unprofitable to serve, and thus must be subsidized by an ocean of dumb money from investors who believe that some future AI model will come to dominate the…

More than 80% of Google searches now end without a click. The grief is over. The structural question is which content categories survive zero-click — and which were always going to be the training…

At the application layer, moats are lagging, earned through scale & brand. At infrastructure, capital intensity demands a leading moat at founding.

Picture a town with 1,000 companies and 100,000 workers. Each company employs 100 people, pays them a wage, and sells to them. The money leaves through the front door as salary and comes back through…

On the morning of April 26, 1478, inside Florence’s cathedral of Santa Maria del Fiore, a group of men waited for the priest to raise the host. When he did, they drew daggers and attacked Lorenzo de’…

Hartley Charlton, reporting for MacRumors: After temporarily taking it down earlier today, Apple’s online store is back up with a series of product price increases. The changes are as follows:…

Cash rewards for bad behavior For decades, commercial setnet fishermen working the beaches on the east side of Cook Inlet fought efforts to alter their fishery to reduce the bycatch of king […]

Looking over a shareholder presentation explaining an AI valuation using the parable of the golden goose (via Mefi), I kept […]

The post Databricks continues to soar as private company, but those margins are starting to shrink appeared first on Cautious Optimism.

Polymarket customers have lost around $2.97 million to an attacker who then swapped stolen Polymarket USD (pUSD) to ETH. Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction markets platform, quickly made an…

Washington’s new 9.9% millionaires tax doesn’t take effect until January 1, 2028, with the first returns and payments due in April 2029. That sounds comfortably far off. But it really…

Do societal promises influence patent value? An analysis of inventions in artificial intelligence

I thank ASM for organising a technical discussion on lithium ion battery interconnects. A typical battery pack could contain anywhere from a couple to thousands of cells depending upon whether it's…

Apple used to bend suppliers to their will. The world has changed.

We are still in the midst of a supply disruption of historical magnitude that will not reverse when the bullets stop. Prefer to read the transcript? Click here https://youtu.be/zCXLKrsVRVs Transcript…

[Also, that “9-9-6 schedule” is horrifying.] I was recently chatting with friends in San Francisco about the devil of a time they had buying a house. An incredible influx of cash related to A.I.…

Some thoughts on lump sum investing, diversification, retirement needs and risk. The post $150,000 or $1.5 Million or $5 Million appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense. ...

Let’s talk about Personal Calendar. Earlier this month, Valve raised the requirements to appear in Popular Upcoming from 7,000-ish wishlists to somewhere around 100,000 wishlists.  In Valve’s…

Most Canadians expect to be in a lower tax bracket in retirement.  But many end up paying more tax than they expect.  How do tax brackets change after age 65 and why can common assumptions…

The number always doubles. The comfort never arrives. Here's why the finish line keeps moving — and what it means to finally define enough.

This is a free piece of Notes on the Crises. All pieces in this OMB series will be free. Please take out a paid subscription to support this work. Or leave a tip.Joshua Lawrence is a…

In The Actuary, the official magazine of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, in the UK, a short article. AI is often discussed as a tool for insurers: a way to improve pricing, underwriting,…

The World Cup is a genuine, enormous attention shock — Wikipedia traffic spikes eightfold during the final. Yet a new working paper finds the World Cup stock market effect barely registers in the…

HMRC put the latest tobacco tax gap estimates out on Tuesday. As with the previous few years, they defy both belief and mathematics. Only 14% of tobacco is illicit, they claim, and illicit…

The Thanksgiving Leftover stocks of 2025 turned in a bad showing during June 2026. The ten worst performing stocks of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) in 2025 collectively dropped by both measures we use to…

This morning Ben Cera (@Bencera), the solo founder behind the AI company Polsia, posted a tweet that has already cleared 240,000 views: Uber had a $500M Anthropic bill in a single month. Mine was…

Chinese token vendors are weaponising Silicon Valley’s favourite playbook against it [^1], and there’s no easy escape:

You may or may not have heard that a piecewise-linear interpolation of caplet vols is not stable, it leads to oscillations in the caplet stripping procedure (implying caplet volatilities from cap vol…

Two massive electric SUVs. Both seat six or more. Both have dual motors, all-wheel drive, and enough torque to pin you to your seat. Both are available right now in the Philippines. And both want to…